Markets Mayhem Puts Spin on Statistics |
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July 9, 2009
International trade is the greatest casualty of this economic crisis, and nowhere is this more visible than in the large Asian exporting nations. As consumers stopped buying durable manufactured goods last year, some countries’ exports were cut in half.
International trade is the greatest casualty of this economic crisis, and nowhere is this more visible than in the large Asian exporting nations. As consumers stopped buying durable manufactured goods last year, some countries’ exports were cut in half.
For the past half year, official export statistics have seemed to rub in the bad news, with every monthly release suggesting continued steep falls in exports across Asia. When China’s latest export figures are published on Friday, they will no doubt show yet another year-on-year double-digit percentage fall.
But there is more to the official trade statistics than meets the eye.
Year-on-year changes in exports – which is how many statistics offices present their updates and what newspapers usually report – do tell a depressing story. Until the end of last year, Chinese exports came in every month 20-30 per cent higher than a year earlier. Then, in the last two months of 2008, year-on-year growth was approximately zero – and in January it plunged to -15 per cent and has stayed around -20 per cent since.
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