Despite an upward revision to 2020 growth projections from the IMF, Turkey's economy remains fragile. Although lira depreciation has been contained since its 30% decline against the dollar in 2018, high levels of foreign-denominated debt and low foreign currency reserves continue to diminish investor confidence in the Turkish economy. The threat of US and EU sanctions is raising the specter of currency crisis in an economy already susceptible to fluctuations in investor risk appetite and capital flight. Is the Turkish economy out of the woods? And if not, are the Turkish government and international community adequately prepared to respond to and contain economic turbulence?
- Timothy Ash, Senior Emerging Markets Sovereign Strategist, BlueBay Asset Management
- Murat Köprülü, Managing Partner, M.E. Markets, LLC
- Starla Griffin, Managing Director, Slaney Advisors